NEW YORK JETS (13-5) at PITTSBURGH STEELERS (13-4)
It's gonna be out fashioned smash mouth football in this one as once again we'll see two of the league's best defenses in action. I have to admit, my pick in this one is a little biased. To understand, I'll have to take you back to last year where I made a bet with one of my coworkers that the New York Jets wouldn't make the playoffs. We all know how that worked out. Thanks to the Colts benching Peyton Manning and others in the 3rd quarter of Week 16 with a 15-10 lead (Jets would go on to win 29-15), and the Bengals opting to sit everyone in Week 17 (Jets won 37-0), the Jets found a way to sneak into the postseason at 9-7 after starting the year 4-6. Awesome. This year I was given the opportunity to go double or nothing, upping the ante so my coworker would need the Jets to make the Super Bowl to win. So now, after upsetting the Colts and their nemeses, the Patriots, here they are, one win away from the Super Bowl, and setting me up to lose yet another bet. That being said, I like my chances (which probably means you should pick against me). These two teams met back in Week 15 in Pittsburgh and saw the Jets win 22-17. Mark Sanchez was sacked just once and threw no interceptions, Jason Taylor tackled Mewelde Moore in the endzone for a 4th quarter safety, and Brad Smith returned the game's opening kickoff for a touchdown. It certainly wasn't a typical Steelers performance. One big difference this time? Troy Polamalu will be playing. Sure he's only one guy, but his ability to impact a game on defense cannot be understated. Offensively, the Steelers did a lot of things well in that game. Mike Wallace went over 100 receiving yards and Rashard Mendenhall had 99 yards and a touchdown and the Steelers actually had a 17-10 lead in the 2nd half. I think this one plays out differently, and I don't think the Jets will be able to get up for this one like they did against New England last week. If Mark Sanchez starts getting hit a lot, I see him getting rattled, and the Steelers running away with this one late.
Prediction: Steelers 27 Jets 16
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
GREEN BAY PACKERS (12-6) at CHICAGO BEARS (12-5)
Speaking of old fashioned football, in our other conference championship game we have the oldest rivalry in football. The Green Bay Packers will take on the Chicago Bears for the 182nd time since 1921 and the third time this season. Each team has won this year on their home field. The Bears won 20-17 back in Week 3 and Green Bay pulled out a 10-3 win in Week 17 to clinch a playoff berth. In the first matchup Green Bay was plagued by 18 penalties for 152 yards, and Devin Hester returned a 4th quarter punt for a touchdown. Aaron Rodgers was able to complete 34 of 45 passes for 316 yards, 9 for 115 to starting tightend Jermichael Finley, now out for the year with a knee injury. Meanwhile, the Packers running tandem of Brandon Jackson and John Kuhn combined for just 43 yards on 13 carries. The second matchup played out very differently. The Packers got to Cutler for 6 sacks and despite Matt Forte averaging over 6 yards a carry, the Bears were only able to generate one field goal. Aaron Rodgers threw for 229 yards and the game's only touchdown to Donald Lee. James Starks, now the Packers feature running back had 5 carries for 20 yards. For me, the emergence of Starks is the biggest difference in this game. The need to be able to load up the box to stop the run will open up opportunities in the passing game, and Rodgers has shown he doesn't need much of a window to throw into. The Bears and Jay Cutler will not go quietly, and with Devin Hester on their roster, no lead is safe but I see the Packers pulling off the upset in a tight one.
Prediction: Packers 27 Bears 24
PLAYOFF PICK RECORD: 4-4
PICKS NOT INVOLVING THE JETS: 4-2
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