Sunday, September 25, 2011

NFL Week 3 Picks

After some rather unprecedented success last week where I went 13-3, I figure we're due for a fall this week. On a side note, still couldn't win the office pool with 13 right. Stupid tiebreakers... Anyhow, here's what I'm calling for Week 3:

Patriots (2-0) @ Bills (2-0)

Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Bills are a great story, but they haven't beaten the Patriots in like 7 1/2 years. Brady needs just 60 yards to reach 1000 on the season. I'm guessing he hits that on New England's first drive. Pick: Patriots

49ers (1-1) @ Bengals (1-1)

Andy Dalton is playing great, but the 49ers should be 2-0 right now if not for the Cowboys crazy comeback last week. Coach Harbaugh will have his team prepared and I'm betting they do everything in their power to make life miserable for Dalton. Pick: 49ers

Dolphins (0-2) @ Browns (1-1)

Miami is 0-2 but they played New England and Houston, who are both undefeated. Cleveland barely escaped Indy with a win last week and now Peyton Hillis apparently has strep throat. The emergence of rookie running back Daniel Thomas for Miami (107 yards rushing in his debut against Houston) will take pressure off of both Reggie Bush and Chad Henne. Pick: Dolphins

Broncos (1-1) @ Titans (1-1)

I made the mistake of picking against my Titans last week and they took it to the Ravens making me look stupid. Not today! The Broncos are not the Ravens, and Chris Johnson is poised for a breakout performance - in 2 games he has a TOTAL of 77 rushing yards and 0 touchdowns. Pick: Titans

Lions (2-0) @ Vikings (0-2)

Detroit has lost some astronomical number of games in a row in Minnesota. In fact you have to go back to 1997 when the Lions had Scott Mitchell under center and Barry Sanders in the backfield to find a Detroit team that got a win there. Detroit has a chance to go to 3-0 for the first time since 1980 and playing against a Vikings team that has really struggled, I see them getting there today. Pick: Lions
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Texans (2-0) @ Saints (2-0)

I had a really tough time with this one since the Texans are on the rise this year and playing great through the first two weeks. But New Orleans is at home in the dome and you can't pick against them when they play there. Not right now at least. Chance for Houston to really establish themselves as one of the AFC's elite with a win here, and while it wouldn't surprise me to see them pull it off, I'm not confident enough to pick them. Pick: Saints

Giants (1-1) @ Eagles (1-1)

With Domenik Hixon now done for the year with a torn ACL, and Mario Manningham concussed and unable to go, the Giants are now looking at Brandon Stokley (age 35) and Victor Cruz (2nd year undrafted out of UMass) as their 2nd and 3rd best wide receivers. The Eagles may or may not have Michael Vick, who also suffered a concussion last week, but regardless who's under center, the Eagles are healthier and have more weapons than the Giants will be able to handle. Playing at home gives them even more of an edge. Pick: Eagles

Jaguars (1-1) @ Panthers (0-2)

Rookie Blaine Gabbert makes his first start for the Jags today after Luke McCown's meltdown against the Jets last week. The Panthers have been surprisingly competitive with Cam Newton at quarterback and while I don't think he throws for over 400 yards for a third straight week, I think this is where he finally gets his first win. Pick: Panthers

Chiefs (0-2) @ Chargers (1-1)

Kansas City has been outscored 89-10 through two games, and they just lost Jamaal Charles for the season last week. I don't know that you pick KC against anybody right now. Pick: Chargers

Jets (2-0) @ Raiders (1-1)

Last time these two teams played, Mark Sanchez ate a hot dog. DURING THE GAME! And he even took the time to put MUSTARD on it!

The Raiders are continuing to get better, but they just lost to the Bills last week. And I don't think the Bills are better than the Jets. Pick: J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS!

Ravens (1-1) @ Rams (0-2)

The Rams do not catch a break after a tough Monday night loss against the Giants last week. The Ravens are coming off a humiliating loss at the hands of the Titans so you can bet they'll be looking to take that out on someone. Pick: Ravens

Falcons (1-1) @ Bucs (1-1)

This was another tough one as these two NFC South teams are both coming in off of big wins last week. The Falcons beat a tough Eagles team 35-31 and the Bucs erased a 17-0 halftime deficit to beat Minnesota. I give the edge to Matty Ice and the Falcons though because I think they are a more complete team. That being said, if this game is close in the 4th quarter, do not be surprised if Josh Freeman can pull off another comeback. Pick: Falcons

Packers (2-0) @ Bears (1-1)

This will make 3 straight weeks picking against Chicago. What a brutal schedule to start the season. Atlanta, New Orleans, Green Bay. Nothing wrong with being 1-2 against that slate. Until somebody beats the Packers, it's hard to pick against them. Pick: Packers

Cardinals (1-1) @ Seahawks (0-2)

A one point loss at Washington is nothing for the Cardinals to be ashamed of. Arizona will continue to get better with Kevin Kolb at quarterback. On the other side of the field I'm still not sold on Tarvaris Jackson who led the Seahawks to just 8 first downs against Pittsburgh last week. Pick: Cardinals

Steelers (1-1) @ Colts (0-2)

The only real question here is does Curtis Painter replace Kerry Collins as Colts quarterback at some point. Pick: Steelers

Redskins (2-0) @ Cowboys (1-1)

Like the Bills, the Redskins are a bit of a surprise this year. But unlike he Bills, I like them in their Week 3 matchup. Tony Romo has a fractured rib and is going to try to play, but his top receiver Miles Austin is out with a hamstring injury. Washington meanwhile is thriving under Rex Grossman and I like what Tim Hightower adds to their offense. Pick: Redskins

Last Week: 13-3
Season: 24-8

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