Last weekend Jayson Werth and the Washinton Nationals made headlines when it was announced that Werth was signing for $126M over 7 years. That works out to $18M per year. While the 31 year-old outfielder has been strong in his past two years with the Phillies, it's a little hard to justify this contract in my mind. Werth has never driven in 100 runs in a season despite being in a loaded Philly lineup the last four years and he has hit over 30 homers in a season just once (36 in 2009). He's also a big risk to strike out tallying 1 every 3.46 at bats over his career. I'm not saying he's not a very good player. He led the National League in doubles last year with 46, and his OPS (On Base Percentage plus Slugging Percentage) last season was over .900. During the 2009 postseason, Werth hit 7 homeruns in 15 games leading the Phillies to the World Series. He also has a pair of 20/20 seasons in 2008 and 2009. Still, I don't know how that equates to $18M a year. By comparison, here's how that $18M stacks up against some other outfielder's 2010 salaries:
Photo Courtesy: federalbaseball.com
Matt Holliday - St. Louis Cardinals - $16.3M
Vernon Wells - Toronto Blue Jays - $15.7M
Alfonso Soriano - Chicago Cubs - $19.0M
Carlos Lee - Houston Astros - $19.0M
Raul Ibanez - Philadelphia Phillies - $12.2M
Magglio Ordonez - Detroit Tigers - $17.8M
So it's not like there isn't a precedent for deals of this size. But Soriano and Lee had both done a lot more in their careers leading up to their megadeals, and neither one has really lived up to the money. Carlos Lee hit just .246 last year with 89 rbis and Soriano just .258 with 79 rbis and only 5 steals. With big contracts over long periods of time comes big risk. So while I applaud the Nationals for trying to make their team better, I really don't know if throwing over $100M at Jayson Werth is the right answer. Time will tell I guess.
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