Saturday, October 1, 2011

NFL Week 4 Picks

Much more typical results from last week's picks as I managed to go just 9-7.  Still can't believe the Bills are 3-0 right now. Here's my picks for Week 4 as I hopefully get back to double digits:

Bills (3-0) @ Bengals (1-2)

I think I've picked against Buffalo in every game this season to this point, and so far they've proved me wrong every time. I still don't know that I'm a believer in Ryan Fitzpatrick, Fred Jackson, and the rest of the Buffalo Bills, but considering what they've been doing lately, I can't not take them here. Especially considering they just picked off Tom Brady 4 times last week, and now they get to go up against a rookie quarterback. Pick: Bills 

Panthers (1-2) @ Bears (1-2)

The Bears have endured a brutal stretch where they've had to play the Packers, Saints and Falcons and as a result, I've picked against them in each of the first three weeks. Well, no more! I don't see Cam Newton having a great deal of success against the Bears defense. Pick: Da Bears! Chicago 140 Carolina... 2.

Titans (2-1) @ Browns (2-1)

Chris Johnson still doesn't have 100 yards rushing on the season, and Kenny Britt was lost for the year after last week's knee injury, but I still like the Titans on the road here. Matt Hasselbeck has been playing better every week as he adjusts to new teammates, and last time I picked against Tennessee they made me look dumb by stunning the Ravens. Pick: Titans 

Lions (3-0) @ Cowboys (2-1)

The Lions haven't lost yet, and last week they showed real character by erasing a 20-0 halftime deficit against the Vikings. The Lions will put all kinds of pressure on Tony Romo and the Cowboys, and I think the Lions are more skilled on both sides of the ball. Pick: Lions 

Vikings (0-3) @ Chiefs (0-3)

Well, assuming they don't tie, one of these teams has to win this week. The Vikings have blown double digit leads in 3 straight games as they've shown an inability to close games out. They do have Adrian Peterson though, and Chiefs don't, so I think this is where Minnesota gets it going. Pick: Vikings 

Redskins (2-1) @ Rams (0-3)

Very little has gone right for the Rams so far this season. It's not like they've had an easy schedule though. Eagles, Giants, Ravens... That'll give anyone problems. Washington is playing much better football than the Rams are right now, and I look for them to bounce back after a frustrating Monday night loss. Rex Grossman for the win! Pick: Redskins 

Saints (2-1) @ Jaguars (1-2)

A few years down the road Blaine Gabbert might be ready to go toe-to-toe with Drew Brees. Right now? Not a chance. The Saints should get Marques Colston back this week which will be great, because what they really need is more weapons on offense... Right... Pick: Saints

49ers (2-1) @ Eagles (1-2)

The 49ers just squeaked by against the Bengals last weekend, and even with all their issues, the Eagles are just too good to keep playing as bad as they have the past few weeks. Pick: Eagles 

Steelers (2-1) @ Texans (2-1)

I haven't been overly impressed with Pittsburgh so far this year. They got manhandled by the Ravens, posted an unimpressive shutout against the weak Seahawks, and barely got by the winless Colts. The Texans meanwhile have looked sharp on offense and their only loss was on the road in New Orleans. They'll have to do a better job of turning red zone opportunities into touchdowns, but as I've been saying this season, this is the Texans year and I like them at home. Pick: Texans 

Falcons (1-2) @ Seahawks (1-2)

Seattle got a big division win last week against Arizona, but I don't see them turning this into two in a row. Atlanta played poorly at Tampa last week, but I fully expect them to bounce back. Pick: Falcons 

Giants (2-1) @ Cardinals (1-2)

If the Cardinals couldn't stop Tarvaris Jackson, they're not going to stop Eli Manning. Even with all the injuries, the Giants have shown themselves to be resilient. The Cardinals are going to be good with Kevin Kolb at quarterback eventually, it might just take a little more time. Pick: Giants 

Broncos (1-2) @ Packers (3-0)

Unless John Elway's coming out of the tunnel with Terrell Davis in the backfield, the Broncos aren't going to beat the Packers tomorrow. Pick: Packers

Patriots (2-1) @ Raiders (2-1)

The Raiders ran all over the Jets last week en route to a big home win. Now they host the Patriots who are coming off a bad loss in which they blew a 21-0 lead. Does anyone really think that the Patriots are going to come out flat for this one? I realize their defense has issues, but Tom Brady is still on track to throw for 7000 yards. And now he's pissed off. Pick: Patriots 

Dolphins (0-3) @ Chargers (2-1)

Looks like the Chargers might be without Antonio Gates again, but playing at home they should still have enough firepower to knock off the visiting Dolphins. Losing to the Patriots and Texans was understandable for the Fins, but last week's loss to the Browns, when Cleveland was without Peyton Hillis, shows just how far they have to go. Pick: Chargers 

Jets (2-1) @ Ravens (2-1)

The Ravens had their let down game two weeks ago against Tennessee. I don't see them showing up flat against the visiting Jets. Meanwhile New York got punched in the mouth last weekend against the Raiders, and it appears their run defense has some issues. I expect Rex Ryan to fix that, but the Ravens are a better team than Oakland is so that might not be enough. Pick: Ravens. 

Colts (0-3) @ Bucs (2-1)

Curtis Painter gets the start for Indy. Need I say more? Pick: Bucs

Last Week: 9-7
Season: 33-15

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